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Wow, Polycarp is fighting an army of ... Republicans. Apparently, they don't know yet that their party is over. Like that Japanese soldier who didn't know that the war ended decades earlier. 
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| Posts: 371 | Location: New York | Registered: 01 July 2007 |  |
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Anna, statistics mean nothing unless you look behind the figures and see where they came from. That's why conservatives and their economist lackies are always the last to know when the economy takes a nose dive. They don't understand their own reports. Reports are correct, and their conclusions are in error. A very, very wealthy man taught me that when I was in my early 20's. He made his many millions reading behind the figures. He could even project them with some accuracy about a year beforehand. I did quite well myself and then saw going after money for money's sake for what it was. An addiction that can harm people. There is no morality in it. Monatarist economic theory is voodoo. You make your fortune not by playing the game, but in knowing that others are.  They believe their own economic clap trap. Retired Monk "Ideology is a disease"
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| Posts: 3412 | Location: denver co | Registered: 17 April 2007 |  |
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quote: Total Fed Credit, where the glorious miracle of "money from thin air" originates at the Federal Reserve - thanks to the use of a fiat money and multiplied by insane levels of fractional reserve banking - actually declined by $3 billion last week. Oops!
Foreign holdings of U.S. and agency debt deposited at the Fed went up another $6.8 billion last week, taking their stash to a hefty $1.988 trillion, getting a little closer to the dark symbolism of the looming "$2 trillion" mark.
With relatively so little happening on the monetary or inflationary front, I had time to actually do my job of reading the entries in this week's "I Can't Believe My Freaking Eyes" contest, presented as part of the popular Mogambo News On Parade (MNOP) series. It resulted in a tie between two equally good items.
The first contestant is, of course, the weird stuff happening as a result of the latest bankrupting boondoggle born of the buttheaded banks, namely the CDO/subprime mortgage debt debacle. The actual entry was the Bloomberg.com report that "The U.S. is urging China's central bank to buy more mortgage-backed securities after a surge in defaults by risky borrowers in the world's largest economy eroded demand for such instruments." Hahaha!
Nobody wants these securities, as they are so default-prone that they are known in the industry itself as "toxic waste", and now we are reduced to begging the Chinese to buy them, to bail out the market, to bail out investors, to bail out the American banks who created the mess, and to bail out the U.S. government, which is watching in horror as trillions and trillions of dollars in losses seem destined to be deducted from taxable incomes! Hahaha!
The official story is that U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Secretary Alphonso Jackson is "in Beijing to persuade the Chinese central bank to buy more mortgage securities from Ginnie Mae, a mortgage association under the Housing Department."
For various reasons, I suppose, the article then adds, "Its securities are guaranteed by the U.S. Government National Mortgage Association."
But the cold reality is that an arrogant, bullying United States is not there to "persuade" the Chinese to do anything, but we are there instead to cram these crappy bonds down their throats, as Mr. Jackson himself said, "It's not a matter whether they're going to do more business in mortgage-backed securities, it's who they're going to do business with."
The other serious contender in the "I Can't Believe My Freaking Eyes" contest ............
Richard Daughty http://www.kitco.com/ind/Daughty/jul202007.htmlhttp://www.kitco.com/ind/Daughty/jul202007.htmlThe big one is comming folks. Buy all the silver and gold you can get your hands on. The Federal Reserve ( which is neither Federal or has Reserves) is getting shaky and the pyramid scheme just may crumble. But dont worry, the next step in the plan is to be rescued by the IMF and World Bank.
"The moon that I love clears a path through the pines And guides a stream right to the bamboo gate."Poems by Zen Master Hsu Yun: Series I
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| Posts: 795 | Location: western slope, northern sierra | Registered: 18 April 2003 |  |
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quote: I suggest that you take the time to buy some gold bullion, silver bullion and some oil stocks, and when I get back you can tell me all about how much money you made, and all the silly, selfish crap you want to buy with the gains, which always seems to put people in a really, really good mood!
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| Posts: 7939 | Location: Santa Barbara | Registered: 19 July 2005 |  |
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Some of my relatives have made a tidy sum doing just that. I advised them to have some gold holdings several years ago. They've doubled their investment.
When you live in Rome, do as the Romans do...with a little common sense added to the mix. If they come to their senses, it' will be time to dump the gold before it drops.
Even some gold, however, won't protect one from the financial ruin of a nation.
Most still have their main assets tied to their homes....that is getting shakey.
Thank you conservatives and your mis-understandings of national economic functions. Many can't see past their own bank books.
They live in an economic dream world in order to support their own economic enrichment beyond national sustainability. They interpret economic theory in a way that makes it seem "logical", even though it makes no sense at all.
It's the contrarian who ultimately makes the most in the equities markets. While others are paying attention to the clap trap, he's doing the opposite of what others "beliefs" about economics are telling them. Beliefs and what is actually so are often two very different things.
Retired Monk "Ideology is a disease"
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| Posts: 3412 | Location: denver co | Registered: 17 April 2007 |  |
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quote: Originally posted by Ronald Rutherford: quote: I suggest that you take the time to buy some gold bullion, silver bullion and some oil stocks, and when I get back you can tell me all about how much money you made, and all the silly, selfish crap you want to buy with the gains, which always seems to put people in a really, really good mood!
Ron I prefer beef or chicken boullion, but that's just me. Ha ha. Bad joke. But seriously...
-stark One tribe, one planet, one future
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| Posts: 299 | Location: Halethorpe, MD | Registered: 25 April 2007 |  |
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Inequality, by the numbersSome interesting info on trends in income & wealth gaps. The rich get richer, the poor get poorer, the middle get poorer. The data shows this is not due to lack of, or reduction of, productivity (which has gone up, see here, scroll down, about 13th line) but due to the "rules of the game" fostering the concentration of wealth by a discrete few rather than a cyclical flow of wealth. first chart: Several more at the link, with references and links at the bottom of the page.
-stark One tribe, one planet, one future
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| Posts: 299 | Location: Halethorpe, MD | Registered: 25 April 2007 |  |
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Stark, Boy I had the most brilliant post ever in my life and it got erased, so instead I offer this quote: Ron I prefer beef or chicken boullion, but that's just me. Ha ha. Bad joke.
While this may look like just a joke. I think you have made a point. Why should we be concerned about inequality anyway? A while ago I saw that there was a report that showed that worldwide satisfaction increased as incomes increase to $13,500 per capita, after that income did not significantly increase utility of the questionnaires. That being said, if we truly want to look at the issues of inequality it takes lots of study and hard work. (Are you truly up to the challenge?) The link you provided does give us plenty of stuff to work with. But let us look at the chart. First why should we be looking at Pre-taxed dollars? People view their well being by take home and not pre-tax. Just ask my wife. Also if Government is to "redistribute" income and hopefully opportunities then we need to look at after the government took their "ill gotten gains" (lol). Secondly do you notice anything strange about the chart? We had less "income inequality" when we were not doing so well. After the Great Depression-went down, the low point in the 70s also was not a good time in the USA and even after the recession and 9-11 we see that it went down again. Maybe we need more recessions/depressions to equalize everyone like after the Great Depression-we just have to live with 25% UE. We also need to note where the top 1% got their ill-gotten gains. I saw some reports that the top 10 and top 5% (excluding the top 1%) lost out to the top 1%. So are we to cry for the really rich for the ultra-rich?
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| Posts: 7939 | Location: Santa Barbara | Registered: 19 July 2005 |  |
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quote: Originally posted by Ronald Rutherford: Stark, Boy I had the most brilliant post ever in my life and it got erased, so instead I offer this
Ron, wish I could have seen that original post. I tend to produce a lot of  myself so let's be careful and not stink everybody outta here! quote: A while ago I saw that there was a report that showed that worldwide satisfaction increased as incomes increase to $13,500 per capita, after that income did not significantly increase utility of the questionnaires.
Find there reference if you can, I'd like to see that report. Curious to how they defined "satisfaction" in their study. quote: But let us look at the chart. First why should we be looking at Pre-taxed dollars? People view their well being by take home and not pre-tax. Just ask my wife. Also if Government is to "redistribute" income and hopefully opportunities then we need to look at after the government took their "ill gotten gains" (lol).
I think it can be useful to look at gross (pre-tax) incomes in order to do the comparisons without regard to tax structures. But for other analyses taxes should be included, so here's a chart depicting that: quote: We also need to note where the top 1% got their ill-gotten gains. I saw some reports that the top 10 and top 5% (excluding the top 1%) lost out to the top 1%. So are we to cry for the really rich for the ultra-rich?
Let's get all of 'em! Seriously, I think we can look at the classes together and separate. Robert Frank in his book Richistan says that truly "rich" in America now means net worths of at least $10 million ( link to summary from The Guardian; blog link). It's probably useful to analyze all the uppermost classes, the top 1%, 5%, 10%, and 20%.
-stark One tribe, one planet, one future
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| Posts: 299 | Location: Halethorpe, MD | Registered: 25 April 2007 |  |
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quote: Originally posted by stark0311: Inequality, by the numbersSome interesting info on trends in income & wealth gaps. The rich get richer, the poor get poorer, the middle get poorer. The data shows this is not due to lack of, or reduction of, productivity (which has gone up, see here, scroll down, about 13th line) but due to the "rules of the game" fostering the concentration of wealth by a discrete few rather than a cyclical flow of wealth. first chart: Several more at the link, with references and links at the bottom of the page.
Does the chart show the coming demise of the current "gilded age"? Or is it just one indicator? It shows an approach to the '29 collapse level. Housing foreclosures are still on the rise. Another economic indicator? Retired Monk "Ideology is a disease"
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| Posts: 3412 | Location: denver co | Registered: 17 April 2007 |  |
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quote: Originally posted by polycarp:
Does the chart show the coming demise of the current "gilded age"? Or is it just one indicator? It shows an approach to the '29 collapse level. Housing foreclosures are still on the rise. Another economic indicator?
Retired Monk "Ideology is a disease"
I think this chart... ...gives another indicator: the decline of personal savings. Wish it had the data stretching back to at least 1900 so could see the trend from 1900 to 1928. I know anecdotally that savings dropped before the Great Depression as people put it into the stock market, even taking loans to do so, but I don't have the data. So here's what we've got: 1. data on the massive concentration of wealth by the small number of über-rich 2. data on the decline in personal savings What else do we need? Tell me and let's try to find it.
-stark One tribe, one planet, one future
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| Posts: 299 | Location: Halethorpe, MD | Registered: 25 April 2007 |  |
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It would be interesting to compare foreclosure rates.
Data is available back to the 20's. Usually found in older textbooks and journals found in used books stores.
We are pretty much heading for an economic structure more commonly found in Latin America. Continual depression at levels below the elite. And its corresponding inability to maintain large military structures.
The monied elite in Latin American have historically invested their money mainly in U.S. ventures. If our society comes to resemble their own, there will no longer be a thriving U.S. domestic economy to do this in. From an observational point of view, this could prove interesting. Experientially, I'd rather do without it.
We do have one substantial difference. Home ownership. An economic collapse effecting all levels can occur here with a collapse in the housing market. That would effect financial institutions and the whole thing would come tumbling down like a house of cards.
Reducing the middle class's ability to pay their mortgages is going to have very serious consequences.
The recent sales reports were interesting. Low end retailers showed gains, high end retailers showed solid gains. Middle class retailers without exception lost sales.
Retail sales are used as economic indicators. $200,000 watches, etc. can show really good retail growth in the U.S....and those items contribute to very little employment in their production. The indicator isn't how high sales are, its where the growth is occuring or declining.
Every "gilded age" of great wealth disparities in the U.S. has led to a collapse. The question isn't will it do this again, it's when.
Interesting to note from one of the charts you posted that the huge disparities began under Reagan.
Retired Monk "Ideology is a disease"
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| Posts: 3412 | Location: denver co | Registered: 17 April 2007 |  |
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quote: Originally posted by polycarp: Interesting to note from one of the charts you posted that the huge disparities began under Reagan.
Retired Monk "Ideology is a disease" 
-stark One tribe, one planet, one future
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| Posts: 299 | Location: Halethorpe, MD | Registered: 25 April 2007 |  |
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quote: Originally posted by polycarp: We do have one substantial difference. Home ownership. An economic collapse effecting all levels can occur here with a collapse in the housing market. That would effect financial institutions and the whole thing would come tumbling down like a house of cards.
I don't have a workable theory or any data on it yet, but this alludes to a smouldering belief I have that the long, long time cultural push in America towards home ownership as a goal and virtue is skewed. Ties up "wealth" in equity, and encourages lending. I think I prefer a system emphasizing liquidity and wealth in terms of cash and savings. A fœtal idea as of yet.
-stark One tribe, one planet, one future
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| Posts: 299 | Location: Halethorpe, MD | Registered: 25 April 2007 |  |
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Good, so it looks like you want to explore this issue further, that is excellent. I just hope to be able to devote some time to it... quote: I think it can be useful to look at gross (pre-tax) incomes in order to do the comparisons without regard to tax structures. But for other analyses taxes should be included, so here's a chart depicting that:
True for some things but Government taxes is important to determine take home and actual disposable income. Thanks for the chart. Does this include transfers also? As much of the lowest segments get back more Federal Tax dollars than they pay in. Also it does nicely show that every group is increasing in income so it looks that even the poor are doing better-although everyone want to point out the bigger pie is getting more skewed. I wrote about Happiness and the link is at: Democratic Peace and Happiness.
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| Posts: 7939 | Location: Santa Barbara | Registered: 19 July 2005 |  |
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Time element quote: So how to box it? The highest priced item would be a watch that moves backwards. Otherwise, it seems, they'll have to use time wisely and be in constant search of a tipping point.
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| Posts: 7939 | Location: Santa Barbara | Registered: 19 July 2005 |  |
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As we look at the numbers it is important to keep in mind an economic truth. That is that incentives matter and thus the corollary is that disincentives matter. So can we see incentives or disincentives changing over this time frame? Unrelated news (or maybe not)... Wal-Mart's $298 PC
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| Posts: 7939 | Location: Santa Barbara | Registered: 19 July 2005 |  |
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quote: Originally posted by stark0311: quote: Originally posted by polycarp: We do have one substantial difference. Home ownership. An economic collapse effecting all levels can occur here with a collapse in the housing market. That would effect financial institutions and the whole thing would come tumbling down like a house of cards.
I don't have a workable theory or any data on it yet, but this alludes to a smouldering belief I have that the long, long time cultural push in America towards home ownership as a goal and virtue is skewed. Ties up "wealth" in equity, and encourages lending. I think I prefer a system emphasizing liquidity and wealth in terms of cash and savings. A fœtal idea as of yet.
One of my most fun things to do at one time was to buy a property and sell it before I actually owned it.  Then they put a stop to "double escrows"  Retired Monk "Ideology is a disease"
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| Posts: 3412 | Location: denver co | Registered: 17 April 2007 |  |
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[QUOTE]Originally posted by polycarp: One of my most fun things to do at one time was to buy a property and sell it before I actually owned it.  Then they put a stop to "double escrows"  [QUOTE] Yup, it's called flipping.In the recently ended national housing boom, the most "booming" area was Loudon County, VA, not far from me. The entire DC region was the most booming large region (started in the tech boom, continued in wake of massive post-9/11 investments centered on DC-area companies and of course Uncle Sam), but Loudon was tops. Fastest growing county in the country for 2004 & 2005. Anyway, flipping was very common around here during that time. The sellers' market was so intense that homes frequently sold above 10% over list, were frequently sold the same day listed, and buyer-initiated incentives became not strange. Local WTOP radio did a great series on it, talking about how there was a dentist who offered a year of free dental care to a seller and his family. Golf club memberships were offered, etc. It was really crazy. We almost considered doing a flip once, but I'm glad we didn't. Would have contributed to the bubble. I think flipping is part of the affluenza problem.
-stark One tribe, one planet, one future
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| Posts: 299 | Location: Halethorpe, MD | Registered: 25 April 2007 |  |
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Stark, quote: We almost considered doing a flip once, but I'm glad we didn't. Would have contributed to the bubble. I think flipping is part of the affluenza problem.
Are you saying that you were thinking of buying a house to sell right away. I think you realize that a frenzied market like that can be like musical chairs and when the speculators get out of the market the price drops and the odd one out gets no chair. LOL.
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| Posts: 7939 | Location: Santa Barbara | Registered: 19 July 2005 |  |
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YOu do have to get out before there are no vacant chairs left. That's when you switch to commercial properties and apartment buildings  L.A. was a "flippers" paradise! Retired Monk "Ideology is a disease"
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| Posts: 3412 | Location: denver co | Registered: 17 April 2007 |  |
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Yeah, I'm just not into that myself. Different strokes.....not just a tv show. Okay, night all.
-stark One tribe, one planet, one future
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| Posts: 299 | Location: Halethorpe, MD | Registered: 25 April 2007 |  |
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quote: Originally posted by polycarp: We do have one substantial difference. Home ownership. An economic collapse effecting all levels can occur here with a collapse in the housing market. That would effect financial institutions and the whole thing would come tumbling down like a house of cards.
Reducing the middle class's ability to pay their mortgages is going to have very serious consequences.
With that in mind, and the sub-prime crisis going on.....it was funny on Monday or Tuesday, right after Thom had done a short bit about all the troubles with housing right, the next ad to come on during the break was for a mortgage lender, advertising that the market is great and rates are the lowest in years, please call to get a great deal. Hmm. Rates are generally up a bit from 2 years ago, aren't they? Don't remember what company, or exactly when the ad aired. I listen to Thom via podcast, so I'm always a day or few behind.
-stark One tribe, one planet, one future
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| Posts: 299 | Location: Halethorpe, MD | Registered: 25 April 2007 |  |
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Stark, I wanted to comment on a couple of the above links. The WSJ article is interesting enough to put a quote here: quote: The real story behind all this wealth, however, isn’t in the numbers. It’s in the people, and how they’re changing the culture and character of wealth in America. Richistan is largely about a country in flux — one in which Old Money is being shoved aside by self-made entrepreneurs, philanthropy is changing from passive check-writing to “high-engagement philanthropy,” and the progressive new rich are changing the politics of wealth. Most of all, Richistan is about the entertaining way that today’s rich are making, spending, donating and living with their wealth. (Like the guy in my book who has a house staff of 105 people.)
Well yes the rich have always had their Castles (got to see it last year-there staff was over a 100 also) or Kennebunkports, or Nantucket ( NYTimes' Tierney on Kennedys, wind farm subs, and some want their rights more equal than others ( Barbra Streisand Sues to Suppress Free Speech Protection for Widely Acclaimed Website). But we do see some things we should take note of in the passage. When the "old rich" is replaced by the "new rich" that should always be a positive step. And notice that many are "progressive new rich". I am not sure if you had a chance to read my other link but I question Gini Index as a useful guide in advanced industrialized countries. Oh, and I found the Guardian article as just a piece on jealousy that stinks. We could note that many in Europe are gobbling up high cost suites in London.
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| Posts: 7939 | Location: Santa Barbara | Registered: 19 July 2005 |  |
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