Thursday, December 20, 2007
Brief Thoughts On Iraq

I was in a meeting today with an old friend who has spent many years in the Gulf and Washington. He is a private citizen, always has been, i.e., not part of the power structures in either place. But he knows and is privy to the thoughts of many of the power brokers. I have respected him as an individual and an analyst for many years, he is far less hot-headed than I am and is always deeply insightful.

He was asked by someone in the meeting his views on current state of Iraq. In a nutshell his view can be summarized as:

The Saudi-US relationship is badly soured, they have lost respect for the United States as a nation deeply in debt to China (i.e., squandering global influence to the rising new power), and for having deliberately harmed the Palestinians and now the Iraqis with the invasion that the Saudis openly warned them would be a disaster.
The Saudis want the US out of Iraq, they’re just making a mess of it, but they want the Americans out on their terms.
The Iranians feel almost exactly the same – they want the US out, but on their terms.
So the Saudis and Iranians have found common ground and have more or less struck a deal to help calm Iraq so that the Americans can “claim victory” and get out. The Saudis and Iranians are meeting regularly behind the scenes and closely coordinating their efforts.
So the Saudis are funneling huge support to anti-Al-Qaeda Sunni elements to tamp those hotheads down, and the Iranians have used their influence to calm down Sadr. So each side is calming down their respective sectors.
They are perfectly happy to let the Americans pretend the “surge” is what has caused the recent calming as it will let Americans feel good about themselves then skidaddle quicker.
Nobody in Washington has a clue what’s really going on on the ground. He thinks Petraeus and a few others likely do, but of course it serves their interests to pretend and let Washington think that they brought about the success instead of other actors beyond their control.
So, realist power politics in the Gulf, and yet more incompetence in Washington.

http://nonarab-arab.blogspot.com/2007/12/brief-thoughts-on-iraq.html

Hi Don-

Here's a comment to the blog link you provided by Shahid72.

quote:

At 2:52 PM, Shahid72 said...
My sources have told me that as the American planes will be leaving Iraq, very soon inshallah, their planes will be blown out of the sky. That will show the Americans the power of the Al Qaeda surge and the wrath of Allah

and

quote:

The bloodthirsty American infidels have killed another citizen of Iraq - Hentish. Hentish was a beloved dog who did not do anything wrong, yet was killed. Hentish was unarmed and defenseless and posed no threat to the invaders, why did they kill him?! Hentish was friendly to American reporters so they killed him. Just because we, freedom fighters, are friends of American journalists doesn't mean that dogs who are friends of journalists need to be killed. This is yet another proof how ruthless the infidels are.

http://shahid72.blogspot.com/

The wheel has been turned, the Karma of the US has been created.
Your friends -observation, analysis and comment- seems contaminated with hope.
The remedy to alter the collective Karma the US citizens have created and face is to hold to account the power structure that set the wheels in motion. Justice must have its roots in the people and be honest and transparent. The Saudi power structure is doing nothing other that protecting itself.

South Vietnam 1972. Nixon..Peace wih Honor. I remember it well. Vietnamization program. the Us military funded by US taxpayers turned the war over to the trusted South Vietnam Govt & Military. We withdrew american troops and trained the South to fight thier own war. The war slowed down and in April 1975 the North invaded the South and in 22 days the Communists were in Saigon. Many of our trusted Southern troops marched right in with them.

America made no attempt to counterattack the Commies and just left.

Truth is the South Vietnamises Govt was so corrupt. They were stealing US taxdollars instead of preparing for battle. The Viet-Cong and North Vietameses knew of the massive arming of the South`s army and allowed themselves to be drafted right in.

I remember in April 1975. Evening news reporting that the Sout Viet Air-Force had dropped bombs on its own troops by mistake.

We had armed the enemy. Military Industrial Complex got paid for it.

I suspect the same senario to repeat in Iraq.
The Insurgents know they can never defeat the USA military. We are training & equiping our enemy. It may take a few years.

The Military Industrial Complex. They always win

Happy New Years.....